A monetarist economist with more than 25 years’ experience of successfully forecasting the world economy, with special emphasis on USA, Eurozone, smaller developed markets and China.

Thirty years ago, nobody outside a small circle really cared about central banks and central bankers. Ten years ago, by contrast, central bankers, victorious in the battle against inflation, had reached semi-divine status (except Alan Greenspan, who was almost fully divine). Today we know that central bankers are not all-powerful and all-knowing. Even so, we are still dependent on them. But now central banks face three crucial issues: What they have to do — normalise monetary policy; what they want to do — return to inflation targeting; and what they fear doing — taking on macro-prudential responsibility. In this talk, I will examine each of these issues, looking at the risks and opportunities for central banks and the consequences of their actions.